Week 15 NFL DFS Breakdown
Full slate breakdown for week 15 of the NFL season
Byes are done! We have a 13-game main slate. That’s the biggest of the year. I think it’s even the first slate over 11 games. So I’ve got my work cut out for me here.
The season-long fantasy playoffs start this week, at least for normal leagues. Imagine having the playoffs last week with bye weeks; that would have been a disaster. I’ve made the playoffs in both leagues, so I’m very much interested in the NFL still.
But this will be a pretty swift run through the games. I don’t want to spend 15 hours on this this week; there are a lot of other things I want to get done. But we’ll go through and find the best plays and try to make some comments about the best plays for season-long fantasy playoff lineup decisions as well.
Game Links
Browns vs. Bears
Ravens vs. Bengals
Cardinals vs. Texans
Jets vs. Jaguars
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Bills vs. Patriots
Commanders vs. Giants
Raiders vs. Eagles
Packers vs. Broncos
Lions vs. Rams
Panthers vs. Saints
Colts vs. Seahawks
Titans vs. 49ers
Implied Totals
Matchups
Team Grades
Defense Plot
Offense Plot
Browns vs. Bears
The Browns have been a fantasy point SUCK all year. Their defense is very good, and their offense has been very bad. UNTIL LAST WEEK. And
Who saw that one coming? The total in that game was 34. Both teams came within a score of beating the game total by themselves.
Quarterbacks
You have to give a hat tip to Shedeur Sanders ($4,700). He played well last week.
He added 4-29-1 on the ground to an 8.7 YPA and a +0.16 EPA, accounting for four total touchdowns.
People might be tempted to buy into him for DFS and maybe even in some fantasy league desperation situations. The full picture isn’t nearly as positive, as you can see in the fantasy points log above. He’s at a -0.09 EPA on the year with a 52% completion rate.
This is a fine matchup for him. The Bears have given up the second-most fantasy points per snap to opposing QBs (Dallas). On a 13-game slate, we have to get everything right. And that means not risking getting ten points from your QB play, regardless of what the price is. It will be interesting to see what Sanders can do the rest of the year, but he’s an easy guy to avoid in fantasy this week.
Caleb Williams ($5,300) is a bad play. The Browns have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per snap to QBs.
Running Backs
Quinshon Judkins ($6,300) has had a fine workload. He’s clearly their guy at RB in early downs, but he’s averaged just 3.2 yards per carry over the last five games, and Dylan Sampson plays a good bit as a change-of-pace, pass-catching option. It’s a good spot for Judkins for sure. I think he’s strong in season-long fantasy leagues, but not for DFS at this price. You have seen the total in this game being low. On a 13-gamer, we probably want to avoid any game that has a real chance of being a total dud. And this game is certainly one of those.
The Bears have a very good run game, but it’s still a split backfield situation against a tough run defense. We can ignore both D’Andre Swift ($5,700) and Kyle Monangai ($5,200), and I’d be a little bit nervous about using either guy in season-long.
Pass Catchers
Rome Odunze could miss another game. We saw the Bears without him last week, and nobody popped. Luther Burden ($4,800) led the team in targets and went for a season-high 71% snap rate and ran 25 routes. We had him in cash last week. His 21% target share was fine, but it turned into just a 4-67-0 line.
If there’s a play in Chicago, it’s probably Burden. But against this defense with this game total with potential weather stuff going on, I don’t think it’s optimal at all. But I’ll throw Burden on the list because he still qualifies as one of these guys who should be considered mis-priced if Odunze misses again.
Harold Fannin ($4,000) might be a guy to consider. He’s been Sanders’ favorite target with 27 targets and a 17-223-2 line in the last four games.
It’s a pretty sick 27% TPRR and a 2.3 YPRR on a 26% target share. The price is coming up, but it’s still a little bit lower than is justified, I think.
Recap
I’d rather not play anybody in a game with a 40-point total with these two shaky QBs and a really good defense involved. But Fannin and Burden (if Odunze remains out) still seem like solid DFS options with their newfound elevated roles.
