Week Two NFL DFS Breakdown
Full slate breakdown for week two of the NFL season
Game Links
Intro
Substack does not work very well with posts that need to be changed. Most of you read this stuff directly in your inbox. And when you’re viewing the email version, I can do nothing to reach in there and change it.
But a full-out NFL DFS write-up should be read progressively. Last week, it was Friday afternoon by the time I dumped out all 12 games for you. I’m guessing that makes it tough.
I write these slowly throughout the week. A few games Tuesday, a few games Wednesday, and then I try to finish it by Thursday. So I feel it’s best to publish this early once I have 4-5 games done, and then publish more and more until it’s all finished. This gives you the chance to spread out your reading, which is a much better experience.
That means you’ll have to read this from a web browser or from the Substack app. IF you just open the email again on Saturday, you won’t see any of the updates that happened after the first publishing. I really recommend people get the Substack app, it’s a great app and a much better reading experience.
Otherwise, just go to ftmff.substack.com in a web browser and you’ll see it there. If you’re having any trouble, reach out to me.
After this is published, I’ll put in direct links to each game so you can just click and go right to each game. That should help as well.
Salary Changes
Price is everything in the DFS game. So we’ll be tracking those prices as the season goes by. I’ve
Find that data here, refreshed weekly.
I’ve also added the data and a plot to the streamlit app! Having just two salaries makes it look pretty dumb, but it will look prettier and be more useful as time goes on.
I’m not able to get weekly projections finalized until at least Wednesday, and possibly even later on Wednesday. I suppose that doesn’t matter to most of you. It seems like a lot of the DFS research, lineup building, and betting stuff goes down on Saturday. I was getting a ton of questions and stuff last Saturday and Sunday morning. Right when I’m least available. But I’ll do what I can to get the projections, props, and app all ready to go for the upcoming week as early as I can. But again, you should probably be expecting that around Wednesday afternoon.
Let’s get into the games, we have a lot of words to write!
Browns vs. Ravens
Game Environment
Ravens -11.5
OU: 45.5
45.5 is a good but not elite total, but this is a good lesson on why implied team totals are so useful. We have a moderate total in the game, but when you cook in the point spread, you see that the Ravens are actually in a fantastic spot for point scoring. Their implied total is 28.5 points, the highest of the entire NFL week.
The formula, for that, by the way:
Implied Team Total = (Game OU / 2) + (Spread / 2)
45.5 divided by 2 is 22.75
11.5 divided by 2 is 5.75
Added together is 28.5
You can see those implied totals right on the Streamlit App under each team name. There is an annoying amount of white space there. I should do something about that.
You can also just check that box above the game selection box to see the whole slate:
I’m trying to make this as easy as possible for us all! But there is still a lot of work to do on the app.
ANYHOO, the Ravens offense was dominant in that first game against the Bills. They averaged a league-leading 8.5 yards per play (nobody else was even at 6.5). And they ran it a ton, as they always do. They went for a 55% rush% and a -13% PROE. Usually, a high run rate is bad for the overall game environment, but the Ravens are so good at it that it doesn’t really work out that way in this case.
The Ravens are basically the same team as last year. And last year, their defense saw the third-highest pace against. They score points in bunches, which speeds up the opposing team as they try to catch up. You only have so many minutes ina football game, so you have to put your foot on the gas whether you like it or not when you’re losing. The Ravens create really friendly game environments for us; that is the bottom line.
This game needs a close look!
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson ($7,000) is in the conversation every time he’s on the main slate. And this early-season price is pretty enticing. He made a living at $8K last year.
It looks like elite QB pricing has started lower this year. Josh Allen is at $7,100 this week. He started out at $8K last year and never went below $7500.
I guess we could have picked up on this last week with Jayden Daniels starting at $7,000. And maybe this whole ordeal should make us a lot more likely to pay for the stud QBs. I mean, this is a $500-$1000 discount from last year. It’s much easier to fit these guys. That’s something we’ll consider as we move through this.
Lamar has a fantastic floor and ceiling. He was under 20 DraftKings points just twice in the regular season last year. The way he can “fail” is if Derrick Henry grabs all of the touchdowns. But with the Ravens leading this slate in implied points, I think Jackson for $7K is going to end up near the top of the list. We’ll still have to find some confidence value to make it work, but it’s a lot easier to make it work right now with these loose prices.
You do have blowout potential in this one with the -11.5 spread. But Joe Flacco ($5,000) is a QB who usually gets his money’s worth. This isn’t a situation where you just know the other QB can’t do anything at all to score points and keep the game interesting. Flacco went 31/45 last week for 290 yards with a 1:2 TD:INT. His average EPA was -0.04, so just slightly under water.
The risk with the Lamar play is that Henry scores two touchdowns right away, and the Browns don’t score points, and this turns into a huge blowout in the second half. That puts Lamar on the bench and risks his fantasy day. But Lamar is going on the list, no doubt about it!
The Ravens are a great matchup for opposing QBs. Maybe their defense is better this year. It does seem like they got a lot better as the season went on last year, but that almost doesn’t matter. The Ravens force other teams to move quickly and throw the ball, and that volume creates points. But even with that said, I don’t think Flacco is in consideration this week.
Running Backs
We do not get a discount on Derrick Henry ($8,200). He’s priced near the top of his range from last year.
Henry is great, and he’s going to score a ton of fantasy points this year. But DFS is a pricing game. Henry pretty much needs to go for 100+ and multiple scores to make him a “can’t miss” play at this price. And I think the Ravens will be pretty happy to give him some rest late in this game if they’re way ahead. So it’s not a Henry week.
The Browns’ backfield looked like this in week one:
Jerome Ford: 52% of snaps, 6 attempts, 1 target
Dylan Sampson: 45% of snaps, 12 attempts, 8 targets
That makes things pretty interesting for Dylan Sampson ($5,200). I think we’ll end up seeing eight targets as near his max; that’s a ton for an RB, but it gives you an immediate idea of how they’ll use him.
The bucket of cold water on the potential Sampson play is that Quinshon Judkins is likely to suit up for this one. I’m not saying that Judkins will come in and grab double-digit touches, but even if it takes like 20% of snaps and a few carries and routes, that’s probably enough to not bother with Sampson even at the price.
If Judkins doesn’t suit up, though, you have a potential play with Sampson. It still wouldn’t be a smash play or a lock or anything like that, but the role is very conducive to DFS success.
Pass Catchers
Lamar and Henry take so many of the fantasy points that it’s been tough to find plays in Baltimore other than those two. But we might have something with Zay Flowers ($6,200). He had a huge game to get his season started. He’s a third-year receiver, and that is often the year you see the huge breakout.
Flowers ran 20 routes (a low number) last week but saw nine targets and a beautiful 7-143-1 line on those routes. That’s an elite 45% TPRR and an insanely elite 7.15 YPRR. It won’t be surprising at all if that’s his best game of the season, but it does show you a good bit about his potential.
For $6,200, though, I don’t think there’s any way we can make this play with the Ravens being the 11-point favorite. The Bills/Ravens game last week was an outlier, and there’s almost no chance the Ravens end up in “air it out” mode in this one.
It’s a no on Flowers for DFS, but we could see him as a top 15 or so fantasy wide receiver when it’s all said and done this year.
Nobody else even saw five targets on Jackson’s 19 attempts. So it’s a three-headed monster in Baltimore with Jackson, Henry, and Flowers. That makes it easy for us.
The Browns’ passing game, as we’ve seen already, is in a good spot. They should be throwing it a bunch. Target last week:
Fannin 9
Jeudy 8
Sampson 8
Tillman 8
Njoku 6
Ford 1
Thrash 1
Bond 1
Harold Fannin ($3,100) was one of the priority waiver wire pickups of the week, and he’ll be popular on this DFS slate. He’s a rookie who had a fantastic college resume, and those nine targets pop from week one.
This is where we have to hit the snaps & routes tab on the dashboard, because Fannin isn’t even the starting tight end on this team with Njoku still around.
Both tight ends played a lot. Fanni was in there on 72% of snaps and ran 29 routes. I still think David Njoku ($4,400) is the better tight end to own in fantasy in Cleveland, but that could be changing. Maybe Fannin is simply better and will take the starting role eventually. For now, it seems like there’s work for both of them.
But with Njoku in the picture, it feels a bit risky to go all-in on Fannin even at the price. He’s going on the list, no doubt about it, but he’s not going to be one of these guys I begin my lineup with.
Since we saw five players get 6+ targets last week, I think that takes everybody else off the board. I don’t really want to spend the money on Jeudy/Tillman/Njoku since things could seemingly go in a lot of different ways.
Maybe we should keep Jeudy in mind. He saw eight targets with a high 12.3 ADoT and an 18% TPRR. He was on the field almost full-time (89% of snaps). He’ll have some big games this year, I think, and this is a good matchup. But I feel that’s a better tourney play than cash play. I would be real into the (probably low-owned) Henry and Jeudy stack in a tourney lineup.
And I like the Jeudy yardage overs. If he’s going to operate in a high target share and high ADoT role, he’ll hit some century marks this year.
Recap
Lamar Jackson is too cheap and is on the list. On the Browns’ side, it’s probably just Harold Fannin in consideration, but I’m also putting Jerry Jeudy near the bottom of the list.
And that’s all you’re going to get for free! Become a paid subscriber and load up this post in a browser or in the app to read the rest! I will have all games and the player pool completed by Friday morning.
